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(From Reinsurance)
Byline: Mark Geoghegan, editor, mark.geoghegan@incisivemedia.com.
Dear friend,
The toughest and most exciting renewal season for five years has come and gone, and now it's time to sit and take stock. The trouble is that it's all turning out as I expected.
Yes, we got the wholesale restructuring of offshore energy business in the Gulf of Mexico, and separate windstorm aggregates and sub-limits have made their way onto many programmes, but the bad news is that the class of 2005 have yet to get out of the starting blocks, and what small generalised rate rises that have been achieved could easily be reversed as the year progresses, especially if the orderly retreat from writing Gulf of Mexico wind exposures turns into a scramble.
The features in this issue go into much more detail, but the situation in today's market reminds me of that odd 'phoney war' period of denial that engulfed us in the first two months after Katrina made landfall. At that time, I spoke to several reinsurers who were anxious to talk up their game ahead of the renewal season, but they sounded deeply unconvincing.
Then, the motto was: "No, it doesn't look like being a balance-sheet issue, but it does look like rates are going to rise across the board. This is a market-changing event, you know."