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Gaidar: If Oil Falls, The Country Falls.
(From The Moscow Times)
Russia's economy is at risk of disintegrating like the Soviet Union's if world oil prices plunge to $25 per barrel, former Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar said on Tuesday.
A drop to or below $25 per barrel would send shock waves through the economy, which is dependent on record hydrocarbons prices, Gaidar, a Yeltsin-era liberal economist who is considered the father of Russia's early market reforms, said at a news conference.
"The Soviet Union disintegrated not because somebody attacked us" but because oil prices fell to one-sixth of their previous value, he said.
Last year, world oil prices in real terms approached levels seen in 1985, Gaidar said, adding that a sharp plunge in 1986 prompted the Soviet collapse.
Peter Westin, chief economist at MDM Bank, called Gaidar's forecast "scare tactics."
"It is not the drop in oil price that will determine the impact but rather the duration of a lower oil price," Westin said.
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