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Surprise! The AER reflects some intriguing numbers among the playoff teams.(NFL)
For whatever reason, the Giants' defense doesn't get much respect. Maybe it's because of all the flash on the other side of the ball, with Tiki Barber, Eli Manning, Jeremy Shockey and those guys. Maybe it's the defense's recent spate of injuries. And maybe it's because the league says the defense isn't very good. After all, according to the official NFL rankings, the Giants ranked 25th in total defense heading into Week 17.
Funny, I've watched a lot of Giants games this season, and that defense is pretty darned good. It forces turnovers, it limits scoring, and it stiffens in the red zone. These are things good defenses do.
So how does a unit like that rank so low? Well, the league rankings are based on one number: yards allowed. Nothing else. But there is so much more that determines the quality of a team's offense or defense: points, turnovers, red zone efficiency, yards per play, first-down and third-down efficiency. That's why the Aikman Efficiency Ratings, my system for ranking team performance, factor in those criteria. And that's why the Giants' AER rating of 10th is a much truer reflection of their defense than the official league rankings.
As we head into the playoffs, it's worth examining these ratings because the Giants aren't the only surprise. Pittsburgh is known for its tough defense, but its offense is better than you might think (eighth in AER, 16th in NFL). The Steelers are one of the most balanced playoff teams and could make some noise in a wide-open AFC race.
The Panthers and Bucs also are intriguing. Both teams are among the league's best on defense in both ranking systems, but their offenses don't get nearly enough love from the league. I wouldn't say Carolina of Tampa Bay is ahead of Seattle, Chicago or New York in the NFC, but don't write them off. Both teams are capable of pulling off upsets.
Check out my ratings. It's interesting to see how they differ from the NFL's--especially when you notice the heavy concentration of playoff teams atop the lists.
The Troy Aikman Show is broadcast at 5 p.m. ET every Thursday through the Super Bowl on Sporting News Radio. Listen online at radio.sportingnews.com.
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