STORM WARNINGS.(The Talk of the Town)(Hurricane Katrina, 2005)

Last week's coverage of Hurricane Katrina

Continuing coverage of Hurricane Katrina

Jon Lee Anderson on rescue and recovery in New Orleans

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners, founded in 1871 and headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri, bills itself as the "oldest association of state officials" in the country. Every three months, its members, who include the chief insurance regulators of all fifty states plus the District of Columbia, hold a four-day meeting to discuss issues of common concern. The association's fall, 2005, meeting was scheduled for this past weekend, and, in addition to seminars on such perennial favorites as "Property Casualty Reinsurance" and "Receivership and Insolvency," the event's planners had organized a session on a new topic: global warming. Given recent events in Louisiana and Mississippi, a session on weather-related disasters would surely have been well attended. Unfortunately for the association, the meeting was booked into the Sheraton in downtown New Orleans.

Katrina was so destructive--whole towns and cities devastated, and their traditions swept away--that anyone who would presume to comment on it has a heavy burden. A disaster of this magnitude seems to demand not dispassionate analysis but simple human empathy. To use it as an occasion to point out the folly of U.S. energy policy, as, for example, the German environmental minister, Jurgen Trittin, did, is to invite the charge of insensitivity, or even worse. "The American president shuts his eyes to the economic and human damage that the failure to protect the climate inflicts on his country and the world economy through natural catastrophes like Katrina," Trittin wrote in the Frankfurter Rundschau. An editor for the London Times online accused Trittin of "intellectual looting," while the Web version of Der Spiegel announced "another low point for transatlantic relations--and set off by a German minister. How pathetic." But, callous as it may seem to say so, America's consumption of fossil fuels and catastrophes like Katrina are indeed connected.

Though hurricanes are, in their details, extremely complicated, basically they all draw their energy from the same source: the warm surface waters of the ocean. This is why they form only in the tropics, and during the season when sea surface temperatures are highest. It follows that if sea surface temperatures increase--as they have been doing--then the amount of energy available to hurricanes will grow. In general, climate scientists predict that climbing CO2 levels will lead to an increase in the intensity of hurricanes, though not in hurricane frequency. (This increase will be superimposed on any natural cycles of hurricane activity.) Meanwhile, as sea levels rise--water expands as it warms--storm surges, like the one that breached the levees in New Orleans, will inevitably become more dangerous. In a paper published in Nature just a few weeks before Katrina struck, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reported that wind-speed measurements made by planes flying through tropical storms showed that the "potential destructiveness" of such storms had "increased markedly" since the nineteen-seventies, right in ...