The Tories' long road back.(Foreign Affairs)

THE LAST GREAT Tory rally before the May 5 election was in London's East End, in the Docklands. It was on the May Bank Holiday and the faithful of all ages and ethnicities from all over London assembled to cheer their leader, Michael Howard. He may have been no match for New Labour's Tony Blair in telegenic looks, charm or eloquence. But he easily outclassed him in argument and plain speaking. In an open-necked pink shirt Howard shook hands and eyeballed his enthusiasts as he moved swiftly to the podium and almost immediately began speaking. No mucking about, he intimated. Let's get on with it. "People have had enough of spin and smirk," he said. "They want someone who will make things work."

There was drama too, as he suddenly stepped down from the rostrum to be closer to his audience and repeat yet again his five famous Lynton Crosby "dog-whistles": no more dirty hospitals, lawless schools, violent streets, criminal people-smugglers, and punitive taxes. It was simple, clear and to the point. School children could understand--and did. Howard insisted: "Never confuse simplicity of language with lack of determination."

But there was also a note of caution. He stressed several times that Labour had a landslide majority. The subtext was that it would be almost impossible to win this time. The best hope was to slash Blair's majority and build a platform for winning next time. Lord Saatchi said the Tory campaign lacked optimism. Certainly there was no electricity in the air at the Docklands rally--nothing comparable with the public exultation in Australia in 1975 at the impending defeat of the Whitlam government. Pray for ram on Thursday, one Tory woman, a rally organiser, said to me ruefully as I left amid the notes of heroic music.

On the Thursday the weather was mostly fine, but Howard still cut Blair back to size. He won a majority of votes in England, and even made inroads into the socialist one-party states of Scotland and Wales. He had important help from Tony Blair, whose spell over the middle class is spluttering out, not only on Iraq but also on the dog-whistle points; from the Liberal Democrats' Charles Kennedy, whose dumb leftism won over enough Labour voters--in the first-past-the-post election system--to deliver several seats to the Tories; and above all from Lynton Crosby and his marginal seat strategy and dog-whistles. (They called it his "professionalism".)

Yet the Conservatives did not increase their share of the total vote. It remained at 33 per cent. They need 40 per cent to win. However disenchanted they may be with Blair and his parsonical smarminess, too many voters refuse to go back to the Tories, whom they see as aloof, uncaring and even arrogant. The Left says this is "the ...