History is on the side of Johnson and Grbac.(quarterbacks Brad Johnson, Elvis Grbac; success of teams that hire free agent quarterbacks)

Brad Johnson signs with the Bucs, Elvis Grbac signs with the Ravens, and the world is forever changed. In Tampa, they openly fantasize, with no shame, about actually attempting a pass on a down other than third. In Baltimore, they theorize that the Ravens' run of dominance may last as long and be as glorious as the Ming dynasty.

In Las Vegas, they play with the numbers in anticipation of the suckers' action. The Bucs' odds of winning the Super Bowl go from 15-to-1 to 8-to-1. The Ravens' go from 12-to-1 to 10-to-1.

Signings of prominent free agents typically prompt overreaction bordering on hysteria, but in the cases of the Bucs and Ravens, there is evidence to suggest this is not overreaction.

Take a look at the chart on the facing page. Since the start of free agency in 1993, there have been 13 quarterbacks who were signed by new teams to be their undisputed starter (Jeff George going to the Raiders is included but not George going to the Vikings or Redskins). In only four of the 13 cases did the team have a worse record the next year. Eight teams improved.

Of all the changes a team can make, no change stands a better chance of making an immediate improvement to the won-lost record as the addition of a veteran quarterback. Since 1993, 16 teams have made it to the play-offs with a new veteran at quarterback. Two of those 16 teams--the 1993 Chiefs with Joe Montana and the 1998 Jets with Vinny Testaverde--made it all the way to the conference championship game. The Ravens won the Super Bowl in January with Trent Dilfer, who was one of four new acquisitions who led their teams to the play-offs in 2000. The others: Miami's Jay Fiedler, New Orleans' Aaron Brooks and Denver's Gus Frerotte.

While free agency has not provided consistent answers at any other position, it has become the spackle of choice when it comes to filling a quarterback hole. In the last two years, the major free-agent quarterback acquisitions--Trent Green of the Rams, Rich Gannon of the Raiders, Kerry Collins of the Giants and Jeff Blake of the Saints--all have been hits. Even though Green hasn't played much, his presence on the roster likely will result in the Rams getting a first-round draft pick in a trade this offseason.

"If you're fortunate enough to get a guy early in the draft, that's really exciting," Raiders coach Jon Gruden says. "But if you're not in a position to do that, free agency is a great way to go."