All Arizona has to do now, right now, is win.(Arizona Diamondbacks)(Brief Article)

It's the time of year when every dub dreams of October glory. But no team needs to win in 2001 as much as the Diamondbacks. Chief executive officer Jerry Colangelo says an attendance increase from 2.9 million to 3.4 million could translate to an $8 million to $10 million improvement in his bottom line. Problem is, attendance won't increase unless the Diamondbacks contend. And if they don't contend, they likely will enter a downward spiral because they have so many aging players signed long-term.

They're on a slippery slope, all fight.

Slippery on the field. Slippery at the gate. Slippery on the ledger sheets, which showed losses of $30 million on the books last season--the most in the majors.

So why is Colangelo smiling?

"What I like more than anything is what I'm hearing from the players," he says. "They're very, very optimistic. I think if we can stay healthy, then we have a very legitimate chance to make a lot of noise."

The trouble with that logic--indeed, the entire trouble with this fourth-year franchise--is that Colangelo has left himself little choice but to proceed on a series of dangerous assumptions. Will the Diamondbacks stay healthy? Why should they? The average age of their projected lineup is 34. Four of their five starting pitchers are 34 or older.

Ages can deceive, for modern athletes work year-round at conditioning, and Diamondbacks outfielders Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez are examples of players who are getting better as they get older. Still, consider the list of Diamondbacks who spent time on the disabled list last season.