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Commercial Servicer: S&P: Slowing Economy Is Pushing Up CMBS Delinquencies.(Brief Article)(Statistical Data Included)
The weakening in the general economy is beginning to take its toll on the commercial real estate sector in the form of increased delinquency rates, according to Standard & Poor's. The rating agency reports that delinquencies within the CMBS sector continued to accelerate in the first quarter of 2001, "tripling the average quarterly increases" experienced in the last two years.
The actual delinquency rate as of March 2001 was 0.955%, with a total amount delinquent of $1.137 billion on a base of $114.3 billion of S&P-rated CMBS conduit transactions.
Peter Kozel, director of CMBS research for S&P, writes, in S&P's CMBS Quarterly Insights, "Mortgage delinquency rates in 2001 will likely expand across all property types. In 2000, the increase in mortgage delinquency rates was concentrated in the lodging and healthcare sectors, and the overall mortgage delinquency rate on Standard & Poor's rated transactions was 0.95% at the end of 2000. These two property sectors very likely will continue to have the highest delinquency rates in 2001. Using the current baseline economic forecast, the average delinquency rate could reach the 1.5% to 2.0% range by early 2002 and might reach the 2.0% to 2.5% range by the end of 2002."
This compares with the average commercial mortgage delinquency rate of 2.3% for the entire history of the American Council of Life Insurance (ACLI) data series, according to the report.
S&P reports that property markets in the Midwest and the Southeast are the ones most severely impacted by the weak economy and that the weakness is more severe in the manufacturing sector.
"The lower-rated credit classes in transactions with a substantial concentration of collateral in regions with economies dominated by manufacturing activity will be at the greatest risk of rising delinquencies and potential downgrades," according to Mr. Kozel.
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Source: HighBeam Research, Commercial Servicer: S&P: Slowing Economy Is Pushing Up CMBS...