The Next Big Thing.(Industry Trend or Event)

there's an old saying that there are two types of people who make forecasts: those who know they don't know what they're talking about and those who don't know they don't know. While that may be true, it didn't stop forecasters at the recent National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) conference from making predictions about the future of communications technology and its potential impact.

Perhaps the way to make the most accurate predictions possible about the next big advances is to extrapolate from those that have taken place in the recent past. And looking back over the past four decades, John Mailhot of Lucent Digital Video Division pointed out in a panel discussion called "The Next Big Thing," the major technological developments were considered significant because they solved big problems and, as a result, dramatically changed the computer industry and how we used digital technology:

Indeed, going back to the 1970s, the big problem for computers was the lack of computer processing power, and our style of working was built around waiting for a central computer to process our batch programs. What changed all that--the big thing of the '80s--was that processing power suddenly became inexpensive, which paved the way for personal computers and allowed individual users to work on their own systems in a distributed environment.

The problem in the 1980s, however, was that PC memory was limited, which crippled users from working on anything beyond fairly simple applications. That problem was solved when both RAM and disk storage expanded swiftly--the big thing of the late '80s and early '90s--and standalone PCs were suddenly capable of handling significant applications, such as desktop publishing.

Then, in the 1990s, the issue was how to enable users of these more powerful PCs to work together. So in the late '90s, the big things were the advent of efficient desk-to-desk networking--which allowed users to collaborate on projects within an enterprise--and the emergence of the Internet and the World Wide Web.

Of course, in this decade the challenge lies in providing effective long-range networking of computers. And the next big thing will be ubiquitous broadband access to the Internet, which will enable high-speed connectivity from any computer to any other.

Unfortunately, broadband is taking longer to become universal than anyone expected. In fact, only 5 percent of households currently have broadband access. But broadband penetration will increase steadily over the next several years, noted Lou Dobbs, anchor of CNN's M0neyline News program. By 2003, more than 15 million households will be broadband enabled. And any company that isn't planning for it right now, he warns, is making a huge strategic mistake.