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Looks like it's off to the races again, with a possible replay of early 1998 in the cards.
The seasonally adjusted MBA Refinancing Index doubled for the week ended Jan. 5, 2001, reaching well into "refi boom" territory to hit 1572.1. The index had not been above the 1000 level since May 1999. Similarly, in early January 1998 the Refi Index skyrocketed from 972.7 to a then-record 1842.5.
Mortgage Information Corp.'s AFS Title Search Index also soared, reaching 173.2 (on a holiday- adjusted basis) for the week ended Jan. 5, 2001, a 40.3% jump.
Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate broke the 7% barrier, falling to 6.89% (plus fees and points) for the week ended Jan. 12, according to Freddie Mac. That was its lowest level in the survey since April 1999.
The upshot?
"At current interest rate levels, April tape speeds should be faster than same coupon, similar seasoning, same mortgage rate 1998 speeds," said UBS Warburg analysts in the Jan. 9 issue of Mortgage Strategist. "This reflects both gross [weighted average coupon] creep and increased mortgage market refinanceability. But speeds will, at these rate levels, be lower than peak 1998 prepayments."
The UBS analysts said prepayment rates in the January reports for Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities were "generally sluggish, belying the rush of activity ahead." They speculated that potential refinancers are waiting until rates appear to hit bottom, citing historical precedent from 1998 for this "fence-sitting" behavior.