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One of the nicest things about the mortgage banking industry is its ability to surprise. Not only is the residential finance sector constantly evolving (thanks, in part, to technology) but just when you think you might have a half-way decent idea of where rates are headed, you get smacked upside the head with a new spike, or a precipitous drop.
So, now that 30-year fixed-rate conventional loans are going for under 7% with no points, the betting is that 2001 very well could turn out to be a $1.5 trillion production year, second only to 1998's record $1.55 trillion year.
Whether we will actually reach the $1.5 trillion threshold is another matter, but several economists are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates another 100 to 200 basis points over the next few months, that is, as long as evidence keeps piling up that the U.S. economy is in for an ugly slowdown. The big question facing lenders and servicers is whether the anticipated cuts are already figured into the bond market and mortgage rates. Is it?
For now, one thing is certain: mortgages rates likely will stay under 7% for the first quarter and the more that number creeps down the more refis will swell. For Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Chase Manhattan Mortgage, and Bank of America Mortgage - all of which are members of the $300 billion-plus servicing club - this unexpected refi boom will create havoc for their servicing managers.
How much havoc the current boom will create is a matter for Wells, Chase and BofA to decide. Yes, these firms are hedged and all have fairly large production operations. But how well hedged are they? And how good are their production networks? The bigger question might be: how much of their servicing is going to skip out the back door and wind up at the competition?
If the big three are smart (and we assume that they are), they'd be out there in the marketplace gearing up production to capture clients ...