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It is the best of times. It is the worst of times. Depending upon your perspective, 2001 has been either a great year for the mortgage servicing industry or a traumatic one. Let's start with the bad news first. A 10-month-old refinancing boom has forced lenders to deal with portfolio churning on a scale rarely seen in the history of the industry. Some lenders, including HomeSide Lending, have been forced to recognize major write-downs in the value of their servicing portfolios as loans ran off the books faster than they could be replaced. We heard that mortgage servicing rights might be a source of earnings volatility under new accounting rules. Now, we know it's true.
On the bright side? Just think about next year.
Most prognosticators expect mortgage rates to edge higher. The consensus forecast is looking for origination volume to total about $1.1 trillion next year, after possibly topping $1.6 trillion this year. That makes the loans being originated this year, most with coupon rates of about 7% or lower, look pretty good from a servicing perspective. Those loans, in all likelihood, will stick around on the books for some time.
Of ...