Mortgage Scene: New Found Gold: the Servicing Rights on a 6% Mortgage.

I can hear the conversations between a husband and wife before they even happen: "Honey, what do you mean you want to move? But, but ... we have a 6% mortgage. Please, honey, no ... I'll give up the Friday night poker game with the boys, but please, not that ... "

Applications are rocking and rolling in refi land. Lenders are getting deluged with telephone inquiries from consumers who want to whittle down those monthly mortgage payments even more, or perhaps take out a little cash to make it through what likely will be an uncomfortable recession.

Depending on how much a consumer is willing to pay in points, a 6% 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now a reality. If not this week, then next. Lender/servicers writing new loans in the range of 6%-6.5% can take comfort, knowing that these newly created servicing contracts, will be, well, gold.

If you have a pool of 6% loans that were written in late 2001, what do you think the chances are that these loans will prepay any time soon? Yes, paper written at 6% is going to be around for a LONG, LONG time. (A few months from now if you want to sell a pool of 6% servicing rights into the secondary market, you should have plenty of bidders.)

Then again, if this recession gets really ugly, we might even see mortgage rates at 5.5%. Do I hear 5%? Predicting rates is never easy. As I've said in the past: If I were that smart I'd be trading bonds on Wall Street instead of writing this column.

But in the wake of the horrific events of Sept. 11, there is a new reality in not just the world but in the world of finance and interest rates. A continued robust refi market is assured - for how long is the big question.

Chances are refis will stay strong ...