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Handicapping the Rookie of the Year race is a bit like solving a good murder mystery. While the average mystery criminal needs motive, means and opportunity, the average NBA rookie needs regular playing time, the ball and a patient coach.
Few rookies have all three, which sometimes rules out the top draft picks. The leading suspects:
1. Shane Battier, Grizzlies. If no other rookie has a breakthrough season, Battier has the inside track. He averaged more than 30 minutes a game in the preseason, and that won't change. He'll log more playing time than any other rookie, and the Grizzlies' roster isn't exactly loaded with scorers. That's a recipe for about 14 points a game, which will be tough to beat.
2. Jason Richardson, Warriors, Richardson won't have minutes handed to him--even on a team that won only 17 games last season--but his preseason efforts made it clear he has more than enough shooting ability (48.4 percent in the preseason) and athleticism to earn them. Bob Sura, Mookie Blaylock and Larry Hughes might start the season ahead of Richardson in the backcourt rotation, but the Warriors know what they have in Richardson--possibly what they traded away in Vince Carter three drafts earlier--and it won't be long before they make use of it.
3. Eddie Griffin, Rockets. The Rockets traded ...