Hot Spots: Colombia.

From the start of his term in office, President Andres Pastrana had made reaching a peace agreement with the Left-wing guerrillas a top priority of his government. With only about eight months to go to next May's elections, however, and a year to the inauguration of a new president next August, there is no longer a chance that he can still reach any significant accord with the rebels. Negotiations with the largest guerrilla movement, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), have failed to yield tangible results and the movement appears in no mood for any serious compromises. Pastrana broke off talks with the second-largest rebel force, the National Liberation Army (ELN), in early August, realizing that even a narrowing of differences was not in the cards.

As recently as in July, Pastrana told Congress "I aspire to reach peace agreements before I finish my mandate, or at the very least advance towards signing agreements for a ceasefire and a cessation of hostilities...which leave the peace process at a point of no return." The recent arrest, though, of three suspected Irish Republican Army members, accused of teaching the guerrillas how to fabricate sophisticated bombs and wage battle in urban terrain, suggests strongly that both FARC and ELN still believe they can win against the military and that they plan to step up their campaigns.

The armed forces, beefed up by a record US aid package of 1.3 billion USD that was approved last year by the US Congress, are convinced that they can gain the upper hand over the rebels, if only given a free hand. Though it has been revived with new recruits, training, and equipment, however, and has won several recent skirmishes with the insurgents, the military-- now 125,000-strong and slated to grow to nearly 160,000 combat troops by 2004--cannot hold on to large stretches of territory. So, even when it carries out successful offensives, it is usually unable to establish a permanent presence and the guerrillas simply move back once the government forces leave.

In short, neither the army nor the rebels can win this war, which has gone on for the better part of 37 years and has cost some 40,000 lives (mostly civilians) in the past decade alone. But the conflict is likely to get worse in the coming months as all sides, including the Right-wing paramilitary groups, seek to strengthen their position on the ground in anticipation of the next government. Pastrana must decide in October whether to renew the huge demilitarized zone (zona de distension or despeje) he has granted FARC in the hope that this would persuade the movement to negotiate in good faith. He is probably inclined to do so, if only to avoid being accused of having killed off the last little hope for progress.

The Bush Administration in Washington, however, is becoming increasingly impatient with this safe zone the size of Switzerland, which FARC has been using to train terrorists, run mobile prison camps, and traffic in drugs. Also, the concession left about 90,000 civilians under FARC control, and Mr. Pastrana is coming under mounting domestic and international pressure to act against rebel abuses there. Candidates for next May's presidential election, in which Pastrana cannot run, all want a tougher stance against the insurgents. So, the stage is set for a sharp increase in violence in the months to come. UN General Secretary Kofi Anan was probably not wide off the mark when he recently ...