Don't Expect Any Miracles.(economic recovery and the Iraq War)(Illustration)

If the United States goes to war in Iraq, it will do so with a strong military but a weak economy. The world's other major economies are also struggling as unemployment rises, markets swoon, investment falters and confidence drops.

Many Americans and Europeans believe that a successful war will revive growth by clearing away geopolitical uncertainties. A quick war that topples Saddam Hussein and his cronies; roots out all weapons of mass destruction; causes very few American, allied or civilian casualties; does no damage to oil facilities; triggers no instability elsewhere in the Muslim world, and leads to no additional acts of terrorism, they argue, would produce lower oil prices and give markets and economies a boost in many parts of the world.

But that scenario might be shortsighted. Even a successful war could simply substitute one set of uncertainties for another. Postwar humanitarian disasters, incursions from Iraq's neighbors, violent civil strife and the transfer of unaccounted-for weapons to terrorists or hostile governments all pose serious risks. And Americans have not been prepared for the large number of troops that will be required for postwar peacekeeping, the length and danger of the task or the high cost of their stay in Iraq. The pressure to withdraw prematurely could jeopardize future stability in the region.

Terrorism prompted by the war is already being predicted. An attack in the United States, Europe or elsewhere would undermine consumer, investor and market confidence around the world. The drumbeat of warnings themselves could unnerve investors and retard growth. Social unrest or political upheavals in the Middle East and other Islamic nations, such as Pakistan, could have serious geopolitical consequences and create new economic uncertainties. With America tied up in Iraq, North Korea's nuclear program could grow more threatening, with an enormous economic impact in Asia and beyond.

Even if none of these risks materializes, it is unrealistic to expect a robust recovery of world growth. For most nations, domestic economic difficulties predate the threat of this war, and cannot be blamed on war- related uncertainties. Japan has faced growth, banking and real-estate problems for more than a decade. Germany's ills go back to the enormous costs of unification, slow and tentative regulatory reform, high wages and expensive worker benefits. Elsewhere in Western Europe a combination of high labor costs, and ponderous ...