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The enduring genius of conspiracy theories is that they can never be proved wrong. Those who fancy themselves too smart for the "official story" will always be convinced that World War I was started by "merchants of death," JFK was killed by the military-industrial complex and the World Trade Center was leveled by the Mossad (or was it the CIA?). And who is to disabuse them? Proving a negative is impossible.
So it is with the coming war in Iraq, which has given rise to two popular theories. First: the Jews are behind it because Saddam Hussein threatens Israel. Second: the oil companies are behind it because Saddam threatens their supplies. These theories would appear incompatible, since oil companies are hardly known for doing Israel's bidding. To address this difficulty, former CIA analyst Stephen C. Pelletiere has "revealed" in a New York Times op-ed that the war is really about seizing Iraq's water and pumping it to thirsty Israelis. So it looks as if Gulf War II is being sponsored by Perrier, not ExxonMobil.
Forgive me for not treating these theories seriously. Black gold has been used to explain American interventions from Vietnam to Afghanistan, though no one has found much oil in either place, or in Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo or myriad other places where U.S. troops have been sent. Ironically, when oil supplies actually were interrupted by the 1973 embargo, the United States did not contemplate military action. If we were ready to fight for cheap energy, we would long ago have invaded Saudi Arabia, home to 25 percent of the world's proven reserves. Instead, the United States overlooks Saudi funding of Islamist extremists. Appeasement, not war, is America's favorite strategy for guaranteeing oil supplies.
If this administration were run by an oil cabal--as critics allege--that would be its strategy, too. Big oil companies have never met a dictator they couldn't do business with, from the Shah of Iran to Saddam Hussein. During the 1990s oil companies were lobbying not to overthrow Saddam, but to ease sanctions on his regime.
It's improbable to think that a president with a Harvard M.B.A. would calculate that ...