A Naked Display of Military Power...: Underlying America's strategy is an understanding of why the Middle East is important--oil.

Many Europeans who acquiesced in the 73-day bombing of Belgrade or the war of revenge in Afghanistan have raised their hands in horror at the prospect of military action in Iraq. Why? Practically, they have not been at all convinced by the arguments offered by the U.S. government and its camp- follower Britain--that Iraq's depleted weapons armory (as opposed to Israel's nuclear stockpile) constitutes a significant danger to the Middle East, or that the fiercely secular Baath Party has links with Osama's gang. That's why millions of people have taken to the streets of North America, Europe and Australia to express their views. The opposition has also noticed the U.S. government's shifting rationale. Recognizing the weaknesses of its original positions justifying an invasion, Washington has begun to invoke the twin causes of humanity and democracy to justify the war. It's a bit late for all that.

But there is a more fundamental issue at work. The antiwar majority in Western Europe, and elsewhere, believes instinctively that this U.S. initiative is nothing more than a naked demonstration of military power. It is not predicated on self-defense (Afghanistan) or on the protection of others (Bosnia, Kosovo). Rather, it is a crude attempt to impose U.S. hegemony on a strategically important region--and, if it succeeds, the invasion will establish a dangerous new precedent for the 21st century. Pre- emptive strikes were the favored weapons of Hitler and Mussolini in the 1930s, mimicked many years later by Israel in 1967. If the United States were to occupy Iraq, the impact of such an event could destabilize the entire post-cold-war order. Regional powers--China, India and South Africa--could use the example to protect their own interests.

Underlying America's aggression is the crude understanding of what makes the Arab world important: the world's largest reserves of cheaply accessible oil. That's why in 1945 the U.S. State Department declared that the oil reserves of the Arabian Peninsula constituted "a ...