Born Yesterday? Bush Has Your Number.(Column)(Discussion of President Bush's announcement of $1.2 bil investment in hydrogen fuel-cell car development)

Byline: Kevin A. Wilson

Maybe you heard President Bush's State of the Union address in which he suggested that an American born in 2003 will drive a hydrogen fuel-cell car when that baby turns 16. This was Dubya's way of announcing a $1.2 billion investment toward development of a hydrogen economy, with the aims of reducing dependence on foreign oil and treading more lightly on this good earth.

It's likely he'll be proven right about the fuel-cell car and the drivers who were born yesterday. But what credit might accrue to Bush and his administration if the public ever finds that H2 means something other than ``My Hummer is bigger 'n your 'Sclade''?

He's a politician, and his lips were moving, so we have our suspicions. Start with the $1.2 billion. It's pocket change unlikely to do anything significant toward fuel-cell development. And what of Bush's fuel-cell car of 2019? Estimates made a month before his administration announced this new investment said 2015 to 2020. No change there.

Industry insiders say 10 times that investment might push the ball forward faster than it's rolling now. The impetus behind fuel-cell development today is a competitive race among car companies-for government to hasten things, it needs to throw enough money at the problem to alter priorities not only in Detroit but also among the companies that would develop a new infrastructure. The amount it would take to drive that kind of change isn't $1.2 billion. Especially when dribbled out over 10 years.

Yes, a decade. The $1.2 billion isn't available now. The total includes $500 million previously committed to Bush's Freedom Car initiative, a 10-year project. Freedom Car? That would be this administration's replacement for the Bill Clinton/Al Gore team's Partnership for a New Generation Vehicle. Remember PNGV? It was a 10-year program whose goal was to develop an 80-mpg family ...