Fighting in Summer?

Will George Bush press the button for war Monday, Jan. 27, the day U.N. inspectors in Iraq make their initial report? Not likely. Even Britain would be hard pressed to go along if he did. And permission to use bases in Turkey, Jordan and perhaps even Saudi Arabia is contingent on getting a second U.N. resolution. "Mission: Impossible," in other words.

So what next? Obviously, wait. How long? Do the math. Next week U.N. inspectors will almost surely be given extra time. Washington insiders are already talking a month--and possibly two. Depending on what the inspectors find, there's then the prospect of a U.N. debate over a second resolution. The first took two months. The next probably won't be easier. Add it all up, and the date for military action is late March, at the earliest, and could be June. Summer, in other words, in Iraq.

The conventional wisdom suggests that's beyond the Pentagon's window of opportunity. In fact, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld seems to be working on that schedule already. In striking contrast to the headlines, the actual U.S. buildup in the gulf has been less than rapid. So far, only one Army division (of three-plus) is on the move. Fewer than half the Marines to be deployed have begun to sail. Air power also lags. Fuel is being stockpiled--233 million gallons shipped since Oct. 1, with millions more supplied locally--but not materiel. Of the Pentagon's "surge fleet" of 19 ...