New dawn for downloads: as broadband arrives in earnest and new services are launched, electronic delivery prepares to come of age. (future online).

After years of empty promises from so-called technology experts, 2003 is being labelled by many as the true beginning of the digital music future, embracing legitimate online delivery services, and through to mobile phone technology.

The arrival of broadband in a significant way in the UK is further underlining the importance of legitimate online delivery systems, to compete with the peril of the increasingly penetrative peer-to-peer (P2P) services. As things currently stand, the online music arena is hosting a conversely balanced David-and-Goliath-sized battle, with the legitimate, multi-national-backed services wandering cyberspace with slingshots, while the illegitimate P2P services rule the roost.

"There will continue to be a big P2P problem this year," says BT head of music Ben Drury, estimating there will be 3m broadband users in the UK by the end of 2003 and an increase of 200% on current subscriptions. "We are seeing the first shoots of legitimate services but there is still a long way to go."

In the US, which is generally accepted to be three to five years ahead of the UK in terms of broadband usage, new research by Nielsen has shown that nearly 15m Americans use KaZaA every month--only AOL instant Messenger and Yahoo Messenger are used for longer periods. Such penetration is virtually unheard of for a service that is not part of a media giant, highlighting how far P2P file-sharing has grown.

In reaction to the growth, new media departments if the major labels are preparing more cunning ways to discourage P2P file-sharing. In 2002, Coldplay's A Rush Of Blood To The Head was one of the highest profile album launches to be pre-empted by the distribution of thousands of dummy MP3 files on the P2P sites, making it impractical for the majority of users to copy files of reasonable quality.

The hope is that illegal file-sharing can be turned into a fruitless activity and demand transferred to the host of recently-launched legal subscription services such as Pressplay, MusicNet and dotmusic on demand. What is sure is that, as their access to content and pricing structures develop--along with increasing "clogging" of the illegal sites--their attractiveness to the mass market will improve dramatically.

Adoption of broadband in the UK will also be key in signalling how consumers may receive and listen to their music in the future. Philips will this year introduce the first PC-independent, consumer-friendly internet audio device, the MC-i200, which has a built-in broadband connection. The product is aimed at consumers for whom internet audio services are already part of everyday life and will fuel the integration of technology in the home.