Turkey Gets Cold Feet.

Call it a bad case of cold feet. To fight a war against Saddam Hussein, Washington needs Turkey's help. At the least, it wants access to air bases along Iraq's northern border. At best, it hopes for permission to launch a full-scale ground operation from Turkish soil involving 80,000 U.S. troops. The inducement is a $14 billion aid package to compensate Ankara for financial losses and the promise of continued support at the IMF. The problem: Turkey's new government, elected just last November, is having serious second thoughts about joining the Bush administration's war.

Turkey's surprise about-face has "stunned" Washington, a senior U.S. official acknowledged to NEWSWEEK, and could force the Pentagon to rethink its whole operations plan. U.S. diplomats and military planners thought they had a deal after the ruling AK Party leader Tayyip Erdogan met with George W. Bush in December. But the Turkish government's dilemma is clear: 88 percent of its people strongly oppose war, according to a recent poll. Ducking a decision, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul has been making the rounds of Arab capitals--Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia--trying to forge a regional front urging restraint. "We will leave no stone unturned in finding a peaceful solution," he vows, even though most diplomats in the region rate his chances as "close to nil," as one bluntly puts it.

Meanwhile, the pressures grow. Officials spent last week haggling over when 150 U.S. technicians can begin initial work on assessing Turkey's ports and airfields. If there is to be a northern front, bases need to be upgraded and troops and equipment moved in before March, when sandstorms make fighting far more difficult. To win even this limited goal, the Pentagon had to drop its usual demand that the team--like all U.S. military assigned to NATO--be subject to American rather than Turkish law. Ankara dug in its heels, insisting that an Iraq invasion would not be a NATO operation.

NEWSWEEK has learned that Washington will almost certainly get the first item on its wish list--the use of Incirlik, Batman, Diyarbakir and Afyon air bases. It will also have access to the ports of Mersin, Iskenderun and Tasucu for landing heavy equipment. These facilities will be beefed up to full war-making capability in short order. But the second item on the wish list--permission to actually stage a ground invasion force in Turkey--is problematic.

If Ankara vetoes opening a northern front--or simply stalls long enough to make it unfeasible--the Pentagon will have to reorganize its whole war effort around an assault from Kuwait. ...