Hot spots: Bahrain. (International Insight).

This tiny Persian Gulf state held elections on October 24 that were remarkable in several respects. For one thing, they were the first in nearly three decades. Bahrain, which was controlled by the Portuguese from 1521 until 1602, came under the sway of the Sunni Moslem Khalifa family in 1783, and has been ruled by it ever since. From 1861 to 1971, it was in all but name a British protectorate. In 1971 it declared its independence, with the Sheikh Isa bin Sulman al-Khalifa becoming the Emir. A constitution was ratified in June 1973 providing for a National Assembly of 30 members, popularly elected for a four-year term, together with all members of the Cabinet (appointed by the Emit). In 1975, however, parliament was suspended and the Emit began ruling by decree.

In the 1990s, Bahrain went through a tense period marked by a harsh crack-down by the authorities on the Shia opposition, which was accused of promoting unrest. This period of frequently arbitrary arrests and secret trials ended in 1999 with the death of Emir Sheikh Isa Bin Sulman al-Khalifa and the ascension to the throne of his son Sheikh Hamad, who released prisoners and scheduled elections. A new constitution last February gave women the right to vote and run for office. Then came municipal elections in May, in which candidates affiliated with Islamist organizations swept all 50 seats on the five councils.

Parliamentary elections were held in October to choose half the deputies of a bicameral assembly (the other half are picked by the Emir). This setup, however, which keeps ultimate control in the hands of the ruler, was rejected by the opposition as an insufficient concession that in their view does not fulfill the promise of the constitution. Four mainly Shi'ite parties, including the popular Jamiat al-Wafaq, argued that the constitution promised an elected legislature with the power to pass laws. They figured that if pro-government candidates won only 14 of the 40 elected parliamentary seats, they could, together with the 40 appointed members, defeat any legislation the government (read: royal family) does not like.

True enough, but this was as far as the Emir was willing to go at this time. So, the largest opposition parties, led by Jamiat Al-Wafaq (to which most of the Shi'ites belong) decided to boycott the balloting to register their protest and make it clear that they did not want to appear to endorse constitutional changes that breach commitments" made in a national charter that was overwhelmingly approved in a referendum in February last year. Bahrain has only 650,000 inhabitants (65 percent of them Shi'ites), of whom only 243,000 are registered voters. The threatened boycott, therefore, worried the powers that be, and the authorities spent the last weeks before the elections progressively reducing the predicted voter turn-out, to the point where they suggested that 30 percent participation would be regarded as a success.

As things turned out, voter participation was an impressive 53.2 percent, allowing the government to claim victory in the test of strength. Moreover, largely because of the boycott, the feared sweep of parliament by Islamist candidates (similar to that of the municipal polls) was avoided. This is, no doubt, a turn welcomed in Washington, since Bahrain ...