No single factor predicts progression to dementia. (Metaanalysis of 19 Studies).

STOCKHOLM -- No single risk factor stands out as a strong predictor of a patient's progression from mild cognitive impairment to dementia, Dr. Pieter Jelle Visser reported at the Eighth International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders.

Such progression is associated with a wide range of factors, including age, degree of functional impairment, memory function, medial temporal lobe atrophy, and apolipoprotein B (apo B) genotype. But none of the factors is sufficiently accurate to be used alone to predict an individual patient's chances of progression, said Dr. Visser of the department of psychiatry and neuropsychiatry, University of Maastricht, the Netherlands.

In a metaanalysis of 19 prospective studies of subjects who had mild cognitive impairment with or without dementia at baseline, the average follow-up was 2.9 years, with a conversion rate to dementia of 16% per year. The number of studies that examined each variable ranged from 1 for apo E genotype (410 subjects) to 13 for gender (932 subjects).