Splendid Isolation.(Tony Blair)

A man who looks very much like British Prime Minister Tony Blair stands at a podium, poised to speak. The opening line of his speech is flashed on a huge TelePrompTer-like screen suspended over the stage: MY FELLOW AMERICANS.

Fellow Americans? What's going on here? It's political satire courtesy of the impersonator Rory Bremner in London's West End. His conceit: Blair has got so close to President George W. Bush that the White House is now writing the P.M.'s speeches. As the TelePrompTer rolls, the frenetic "Blair" edits and rephrases his way through a sea of cloying, flag-waving, mom-and-apple-pie Americanisms. Then, with a dramatic pause, the last line flashes onto the screen: god bless america. He despairs--and substitutes his own finale. "God help us all."

Europe couldn't agree more. From Paris to Brussels to Berlin, Blair's European partners have for the most part had it up to here with his shoulder-to-shoulder, pro-U.S.A. shtik. They're grateful for his moderating influence on Bush, which has helped ensure that any war against Iraq will go through the United Nations. But they worry that he has become "the little dog that follows America," as one European Union official in Brussels snidely puts it. Some fear that Blair's confused allegiances may frustrate such cherished European projects as a common foreign policy. Others are concerned that Blair himself might be harmed. His adventures with Bush, it's said, could dash his ambitions to place Britain (and himself) at the heart of Europe, especially as Blair contemplates calling a referendum on joining the euro. "It's a shame," says a Spanish EU official. "Blair is the best communicator in the EU. Now, because of his slavish pro-Americanism, he's suspect. He's marginalized himself."

It's not quite that simple, of course. For one thing, Europe itself is changing. Today's European Union, grown from nine to 15, remains very much the child of Western Europe and the old European Community. And those who resent Blair's closeness to Washington are mainly elites of what might be called the traditional Powers That Be--the mandarins of Brussels, Paris and, to a lesser extent, Berlin. But that axis is weakening. Come next year, a new Europe will be born, expanding into Central Europe, the Baltics and beyond. These new members will, over time, redefine what it is to be "European." And that new Europe, among other things, will be markedly more pro-American than the old Europe was. Rather than being isolated, in other words, Blair should before long have lots of company.

Think of Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia or Lithuania. Recently liberated from Soviet domination, these "accession" states are unabashedly enamored of the country that saved them. Many still view the United States as the ultimate guarantor of their security. From their perspective, Britain's loyalty to America seems less servile than logical. "When I travel in Eastern Europe," says Denis MacShane, Britain's minister for Europe, "there is far more support for the United States than is realized." The new, greater Europe, he adds, "wants leadership and will turn to those who have a clear vision of what is good and bad in the world." In other words, the United States and its trusty sidekick, Britain. History is on Blair's side.

But that's for the future. In the here and now, he definitely has a problem. There is no denying that Iraq has widened the gap between Britain and its Continental neighbors. With London siding with Washington on the U.N. Security Council, it was left to France to push for the dovish "European" wording of last week's weapons-inspection resolution. Blair acknowledges the ...