Moscow Takes The Gloves Off.(Chechen terrorism)

The hostage crisis in Moscow has been called "Russia's 9-11." That's an exaggeration, but it clearly was a dreadful shock. Though unlikely to produce radical changes in Russian policies, it will have serious repercussions in areas ranging from ethnic relations and media freedom to civil liberties and foreign policy.

Contemporary Russia has not got nearly the credit it deserves for ethnic peace and tolerance. Given the extraordinary psychological and economic disruptions caused by the Soviet collapse, many expected an explosion of mass chauvinism. It didn't happen. For the most part, the former republics have all been able to develop their national identities largely without interference from Moscow. Only in Chechnya has national conflict erupted.

Thanks to the war--and the dominant role of Chechens and other Caucasians in organized crime--there is widespread prejudice against Caucasians in Russia. There have even been pogroms against them. If Russia now intensifies operations throughout the north Caucasus to hunt down Chechen separatists and their allies, ethnic tensions between Russians--and all the Muslim peoples of the region--may well grow. Already, hundreds of thousands of Chechens in Moscow and elsewhere are coming under heavy police scrutiny.

The wealthy and influential Chechen business community in Russia-- permeated by the so-called "Chechen mafia"--takes an ambiguous attitude toward the war. Businessmen and criminal bosses have been as angry as other Chechens at the atrocities and other losses inflicted by Russian troops, including against their own relatives. On the other hand, economic interests dictate that Chechnya should remain within Russia. In the past, this led to an informal deal whereby Chechen "businessmen" promised to help prevent terrorist attacks in Moscow, in return for promises by the authorities not to put too much pressure on their shady dealings. But in the latest crisis, the hostage takers almost certainly had help from local Chechens with agents in the Moscow police. As a consequence, the Chechen business community as a whole can expect to be targeted. The problem for Russia is that this will undermine the strategy of getting influential Chechens to accept Russian sovereignty over Chechnya and support its pro-Russian government.

The crisis has also produced a crackdown on the Russian media, at least when reporting on terrorism. Undoubtedly this will spill over to wider restrictions on critical coverage of the Chechen war--and perhaps of the Putin administration in general. Such restrictions have been less ruthless than in ...