After The Dalai Lama.(Tibetan political life)

The Dalai Lama is, fortunately, a very healthy man. Still, Tibetans often discuss life after the Dalai Lama. Such talk has been all the more commonplace in recent years, since Beijing began saying it would never negotiate with His Holiness, apparently under the false hope that the Tibetan question will just go away with his passing. Most Tibetans have a deep and natural faith in their leader, who is now 67, and would no doubt view his death as a traumatic blow. But Tibetans are psychologically prepared for the Dalai Lama's death, and for reasons beyond the fact that "impermanence" is an article of their faith. Tibetans' confidence in the future rests on their own religious and political traditions. Constitutional provisions are in place, and on that fateful day a three-person council will be elected to undertake the long and arcane process of searching for the Dalai Lama's 15th reincarnation.

But, in truth, the absence of the Dalai Lama would not altogether be a bad thing for Tibetan politics. Yes, His Holiness is the draw for much of the international publicity showered on the Tibetan cause, but this attention does little to advance Tibetan national interests. Most leaders in the developed world assuage their consciences by praising the man and his noble mission, all the while ignoring the Tibetan question in their policies. Against such warm indifference, the Dalai Lama's calculation-that by surrendering independence to Beijing he might arrive at an accommodation with Chinese leaders-seems increasingly forlorn.

The Dalai Lama's presence in Tibetan political life is much like the giant banyan tree, under whose shade little can grow. Tibetan ministers give the appearance of being no more than messenger boys, and members of Parliament fall over each other in their eagerness to agree with him. The Dalai Lama himself has remarked on the dilemma of his omniscient leadership but has done little to resolve it. But his absence might be just the thing that allows mature democratic institutions to take root. To be sure, without His Holiness's presence there is danger of dissension within refugee society. But exiled Tibetans ...