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The performer known as Lifto has a problem. A longtime member of the Jim Rose Circus, he can already lift incredible amounts of weight with his penis. But he wants to take his act to the next level: bungee jumping with a cord tied to his, uh, nethers. "He had a detachment issue," says circus boss Jim Rose, "and he needs extra strength." Genetic manipulation may offer Lifto and other circus freaks their greatest hope. Scientists have already developed a synthetic gene that triggers massive muscle development in rats. By 2012, a more advanced gene for humans will likely be available on the open market. Even if Lifto has to travel as far as Thailand or China to get the job done, his boss sees no problem. Wherever the services become available, Rose and his crew will be there "in a minute," he says. "Borders don't mean much to a circus."
The wonders of "mad science" will not, alas, be limited to circus freaks. Over the next 10 years genetics is set to become one of the world's biggest industries, capitalizing on rapid-fire advances in everything from genetically modified foods to human cloning and the genetic manipulation of human traits. By 2012 self-indulgent Westerners will doubtless be using gene therapy to tailor their bodies. But the most advanced--and often most frightening--applications of genetic science will likely be illegal in the United States and Europe. Instead there will be plenty of adventurous labs in countries, such as Russia or China, where there are few ethical qualms about genetic manipulation, few public protests--and lots of human guinea pigs. Even more worrisome is the prospect that genetics might be used to pursue political or military agendas. Can you imagine a Chinese Army of genetically enhanced "supersoldiers"? How about a terrorist cell of cloned suicide bombers?
Such possibilities may not be too far off in 2012. By then, gene- manipulation techniques will not be limited to screening embryos for favorable traits, which is already starting to happen. Doctors will soon be able to add artificial chromosomes to a patient's germ line to help fight disease or duplicate his DNA to make organ donors obsolete. Many of these rapid-fire developments will have noble uses: new treatments for genetic diseases, increased food production, the elimination of deadly viruses and genetically personalized consumer services. But the same tools that will push established scientists toward these breakthroughs will increasingly become available to less- regulated labs as well. No one can foresee just how gene manipulation might be abused, but the concern is real. "Within the next decade, the techniques will become affordable and simplified to the extent that nonmajor research facilities will be able to conduct powerful experiments," says Paul Billings, editor in chief of GeneLetter. "There will be people like Dr. Mengele in this world. All we can do as the civilized world is make our case to pass policies and punish people when we catch them."
Genetic experimentation will be nearly impossible to police, especially in the developing world. Few national or international agencies have stepped forward to lead such an effort, and fewer still have called for tighter controls. In 10 years, the situation could be out of control: labs run by secretive states, multinational corporations or rogue individuals. "There is a vacuum of leadership," says Richard Hayes of the Center for Genetics and Society. "These technologies of human genetic manipulation have developed so rapidly that there is not the type of structure to regulate them or call attention to them."
By 2012, scientists still won't be able to mold DNA like Play-Doh, but they may have solved the conundrum of reproductive human cloning. Italy's infamous fertility doctor Severino Antinori, in fact, says he already has a woman in his program who is five months pregnant with a cloned embryo. Many scientists doubt his claim. But is it just a coincidence--or Antinori's grandstanding--that he told an Italian newspaper his ...