What's in after greed?(what the world will look like in 2012)(the rise of community)(Brief Article)

KARABELL is the author of several books and is senior economic analyst and futurist at Fred Alger Management

American culture at the end of 2002 is adrift. As quickly as the New Economy rose, it fell, leaving America rudderless once again. In the 1970s, after the seeming failure of big government to improve people's lives, it took several years for the free-market ethos of the 1980s to assert itself. Now we are in a new vacuum, but we will soon discover a new Zeitgeist.

Already, there are hints of what that will be. Best-seller Jan Karon has sold more than 10 million copies of her novels, which weave a comforting picture of small-town life and religious values. The "Left Behind" novels of Tim LaHaye represent a darker take on similar themes, and have already sold more than 30 million copies. LaHaye chronicles an apocalyptic time in the near future when the Antichrist returns, the Rapture begins and a few pure souls struggle to survive Armageddon. In a related vein, Oprah Winfrey's book club favored novels of troubled family life and communities, and her protege Dr. Phil has developed his own following offering folk wisdom about how to stay married and raise children. Oprah no longer makes a monthly selection, but her success triggered a boom, and there are now an estimated 500,000 book clubs in the United States.

It may seem jarring to link these pop cult figures. Oprah and the Apocalypse? But in the 1970s, hippies and druggies wouldn't have been caught dead hanging out with computer geeks and engineers. By the 1980s, together they started the PC revolution. A decade from now, it will be clear that Oprah and LaHaye were both harbingers of the same Zeitgeist of community and belonging.

Look around. The giddy profits of the late 1990s helped fuel a boom in nonprofits. Today there are more than 1.5 million nonprofit organizations employing, by some estimates, 10 percent of the American work force. A few, like the National Football League, take tax advantage of the loose requirements for nonprofit status, but many are helping others for little or no reward. More and more young people and retirees are donating their time to work for a cause.

Amid the explosion of suburban insta-mansions, the Disney Corp. has been building communities in Florida that replicate the 1950s idyll of small-town America. One of these, named Celebration, looks like the set of the movie "The Truman Show." It had far more applicants than the 2,500 slots available, and though the town has since been divided by disputes, it inspired similar communities across the country, many of which are ...