War Zones Of 2012.(what the world will look like in 2012)

For decades, the list of the world's most dangerous conflicts was short and changed very little. All dated to World War II and its tangled aftermath of cold war and imperial retreat. There was the tense border between India and Pakistan, the perpetual turmoil of the Middle East, saber rattling over Taiwan and blood rivalries between the Koreas and the Germanys--later replaced by the Balkans after the fall of the Berlin wall. In all those decades, then, only one hot spot actually cooled while another flamed up. The farther we get from World War II, however, the more likely it is that the aging standoffs we have grown used to will fade, or finally explode, and new ones will arise. The roster of critical conflicts--those most likely to draw in the world's great powers--will change. Here's how the strategic map of the world may look in 2012:

Taiwan

The world's first information war erupts after Washington ships reconnaissance aircraft cloaked in a new "stealth paint" to Taiwan. Beijing is furious. Before 2010, China had expressed its violent displeasure by conducting missile tests in the Taiwan Strait. But now, just as Taipei strategists warned in 2002, the Chinese have a new method of intimidation: electromagnetic-pulse weaponry.

Beijing fires one brief, powerful, targeted pulse from a satellite in low Earth orbit. It strikes the capital city of Taipei at noon, shutting down the stock market, banks, air-traffic control, e-mail networks. The city is thrown into chaos for an afternoon. Beijing Foreign Ministry officials insist the assault "did not reflect official policy," hinting that rogue generals were behind the attack. Taiwanese officials denounce the assault as a "monstrous new form of barbarity" and demand a full explanation. Taipei hackers don't wait: they let loose computer worms that paralyze Beijing's high-tech enclave of Zhongguancun. American and European leaders urge everyone to stand down. To that, Beijing hawks and Taipei hackers both claim the high road, saying info weapons are a laudable step backward in the history of weapons that have otherwise grown more and more lethal.

--Melinda Liu

Colombia

America's next Vietnam emerges from George W. Bush's 2002 decision to arm an "anti-terror" battalion in Colombia. The government is hanging on in the cities, battered by mortar attacks from all sides. Paramilitary armies of the left and right have splintered with the death of their top leaders, and no longer fear drawing America into the conflict. That line is crossed. Now they host anyone with money or guns: Mideast arms merchants and European and Latin mercenaries.