Majority Report: Can Republicans hold the House?

Since 1994, when Republicans won 54 seats and took control of the House for the first time in 40 years, their majority in that chamber has dwindled to a perilous six votes. This handful of GOP seats has meant victory in the House for virtually all of President Bush's domestic agenda. What happens next -- that is to say, whether the House becomes Speaker Gephardt's graveyard for the president's priorities during the remainder of his term -- depends on the GOP's ability to defend its majority this November. Although in early September most observers give the edge to the GOP, the political environment remains chancy.

That the president seriously wants a Republican House is a safe bet. Prior to Labor Day, Vice President Cheney had made appearances to boost GOP candidates in almost every competitive district; and the president himself had raised well over $100 million in 50 fundraising events. Furthermore, while White House advisers typically hesitate to risk a president's popularity in tough local races, President Bush's clout is being tested where GOP wins aren't a sure bet. On one day in early September, he campaigned for the Republican candidate for an open Democratic seat in Indiana and for an endangered GOP incumbent in Kentucky. Majority Whip Tom DeLay sees the Bush White House as more helpful to congressional candidates than any previous one of either party.

As in years past, there are relatively few competitive House races this campaign season. When the risk-averse parties divvied up the spoils during the redistricting after the 2000 census, the Republicans netted only a small advantage; as a result, over 90 percent of incumbents fit comfortably in districts designed for perpetual job security. Although there is at least some competition in about 56 races, Republicans currently see only 35 seats as potential toss-ups. Atypically, however, some veteran members are among the most vulnerable: Thanks to redistricting that has them campaigning in less friendly territory, Maryland's Connie Morella and North Carolina's Robin Hayes are on the endangered list. Republican incumbents in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Mississippi have been tossed into districts where they face Democratic incumbents. And Republicans Anne Northup in Kentucky and Heather Wilson in New Mexico again face tough races of the kind they have had since they were first elected.

Few House freshmen are among the most vulnerable members; Jim Ellis, executive director of Tom DeLay's leadership PAC, attributes this to the Democrats' inability to recruit formidable opponents. "I think it's the 'minority mindset' setting in," explains Ellis, who recognizes that when Democrats were in the majority in Congress, Republicans had difficulty persuading state lawmakers to forfeit their posts to make an uphill fight in the hope of serving with a frustrated congressional minority. In addition, the recruiting season was already over when corporate scandals spread far beyond Enron, the budget deficit ballooned, and the war on terrorism appeared to stall.

Ellis thinks the GOP can expect to pick up two to seven seats, but his analysis of the competitive races underscores that the parties' opportunities are evenly matched. The GOP's current polls indicate that 24 of the 35 most competitive contests lean Republican. Given the fact that a couple of open GOP seats are in jeopardy, if Republicans won all 24 of those races, they would still have a net loss of two seats, and see their majority shrink from six seats to just four. There's clearly very little margin for error, and this ought to dictate caution in making any ultimate prediction. The eleven remaining toss-ups include six Republican seats, one Democratic seat, two incumbent-vs.-incumbent matches, and two new seats. Should ...