Turmoil at the Top.(Turkey)(Brief Article)

This was meant to be the year Turkey turned around, when sensible economic policies and an ambitious program of reform would heal a deep economic crisis and put the country on track for membership in the European Union. Instead, what the Turkish press has dubbed a "political earthquake" in Ankara is threatening to plunge the country back into recession and put plans for Turkey's EU membership in the deep freeze.

The man at the center of the storm is 77-year-old Bulent Ecevit, Turkey's prime minister and one of the country's most trusted veteran politicians. Until recently he was doing a good job of holding together an unlikely coalition of socialists, centrists and nationalists while pushing forward with reforms demanded by the EU and the International Monetary Fund. But in May Ecevit fell ill and disappeared from public view (and cabinet meetings). Opponents and supporters alike called for him to step down in favor of a younger man, most likely the pro-EU Foreign Minister Ismail Cem. The prime minister, legendarily stubborn, refused. That prompted a revolt from within his Democratic Left Party (DSP). Over the course of a week, Ecevit's trusted deputy, Husamettin Ozkan, resigned his post, along with 46 DSP parliamentarians and seven ministers, including Cem. Economy Minister Kemal Dervis, a former World Banker who has come close to curing Turkey's sick economy, tried to step down, too, only to withdraw his resignation hours later after Turkey's president, Ahmed Sezer, begged the highly regarded minister not to leave.

The result is an ominous political stalemate. Ecevit insists he'll limp on with a rump cabinet, including his new Euroskeptic, hawkish foreign minister, Sukru Sura Gurel. Meanwhile his best ministers and the rebels from within his own party are working to set up a new centrist political movement to contest elections, which will probably be called in November. Though Dervis is still at his post, the political uncertainty is sure to depress the markets and the already hyperinflated Turkish lira (which hit a historical low of 1.7 million to the dollar before Dervis withdrew his resignation). Worst of all, the turmoil in Ankara will likely bring to a halt the political and economic reforms designed to qualify Turkey for the first rung on the ladder to EU accession--changes like granting more minority rights, abolishing the death penalty and allowing more freedom of expression. "It was going to be a high bar to jump even in ...