Not a Ticking Time Bomb.(Indonesia)(Brief Article)

Indonesia has always been critical to the stability of Southeast Asia not because of anything the country has done, but because of what everyone fears it might do--fall apart. Since September 11, that worry has only grown. Now Indonesia represents more than a sprawling archipelago that straddles vital sea lanes. It is the world's largest Muslim nation, a potential breeding ground for fundamentalists and a chaotic hinterland into which Islamic terrorists could well burrow. In other words, now countries far beyond the region are afraid--some would say terrified--of the prospect of Indonesia's falling apart.

Are these fears justified? There is no question that Indonesia faces enormous challenges, and that its performance since the fall of Suharto in 1998 has not inspired much confidence. But some of the nightmare scenarios are grossly exaggerated. So far there are no grounds for believing that Indonesia is close to disintegration along the lines of the Soviet Union or the former Yugoslavia, while the prospect of Islamic radicals' seizing power is quite remote.

Communal violence has been common during recent years. But what is often forgotten is that the regions most affected by conflict--Aceh, Papua, Maluku, West and Central Kalimantan and Poso on the island of Sulawesi--contain little more than 5 percent of Indonesia's population. This is not to say that the suffering brought about by such violence is not serious. Still, the unrest should be seen in perspective. About 95 percent of Indonesia's population live in areas that have not been disrupted by widespread violence.

Armed separatist movements are active in only two of Indonesia's 32 provinces--Aceh and Papua--and in neither are they close to winning. As long as the roots of separatist demands are not addressed, these struggles will continue; the brutal methods often adopted by the military only exacerbate local disaffection. But there are no signs that armed separatism is about to emerge in any of the other 30 provinces.

Although Islam is the religion of 87 percent of Indonesians, radical Islamic groups have never been close to political power. In the 1999 election, parties committed to explicitly Islamic goals won only 14 percent of the vote. Most Muslims gave their votes to the two main secular parties, President Megawati's PDI-P and Golkar, the former ruling party under Suharto.

Violence perpetrated by radical Islamic groups receives much publicity but is not in fact widespread. The worst violence ...