The Man in The Hot Seat.(Jean-Pierre Raffarin)

France's new prime minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, didn't make it to the summit in Seville last week. As Europe's heads of state waited out an air-traffic controllers' strike that crippled the Continent, then braved Spain's marching workers, Raffarin penciled Fete de la Musique onto his schedule. Each year at this time, France devotes a day and night to dancing, singing and concert-watching in the streets. And while the rotund Raffarin, 53, may not look like he was born to boogie, he just loves French pop. "When a meeting goes on too long," says one old friend, "he breaks into an impersonation of [French rocker Johnny] Hallyday."

So it was that Raffarin positioned himself in rural Le Puy last week, far from the geopolitical fray of Seville, where President Jacques Chirac held sway. Was this a spontaneous bit of self-indulgence? The discreet reticence of a loyal No. 2 in France's new conservative government? More like cool political calculation. Raffarin knows the serious challenges looming ahead: immigration, economic stagnation, tax reform, cuts in government spending, an overhaul of farm subsidies, the rapid expansion of the European franchise to the east. The list is long, and it's not new, nor are the issues particular to his own country. But as the man in the hot seat, he must soon tackle them all. How he proceeds and what he decides will make him a bellwether--not only for the future of France, but for Europe.

Next to the older generation of European politicians, Raffarin is a refreshing breed apart. With his bit of scheduling legerdemain last Friday, he underscored all sorts of differences between his government and the one it replaces. For five years of uncomfortable "cohabitation," Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin was, in essence and appearance, running for president against the Gaullist Chirac. So Jospin would never have let him appear alone in Seville, or anywhere else on the global stage. But legislative elections two weeks ago gave Chirac and Raffarin's party, the Union for a Presidential Majority, an absolute hold on the National Assembly for the next five years. Bottom line: this prime minister possesses the standing to let his president go to the summit alone.

That aura of confidence, of quietly taking charge, goes deeper. Where Jospin appeared serious, severe, even brittle, Raffarin is affable, conciliatory, roly-poly. The son of a well-to-do dairyman politician, he's spent much of his political career representing his hometown of Chasseneuil-du-Poitou and presiding over the region of Poitou- Charentes. He comes across as a son of la France profonde, far from the city slickers and cynical intrigues of Paris. His unruly hair and ill- fitting suits have become personal trademarks. Not surprisingly, that's already tempted the international media down a garden path. Raffarin is proclaimed a man of the people, low-key and self-effacing--and perhaps, by implication, a bit of a dim bulb in contrast to the incandescent arrogance and elitism of so many of his predecessors. But that's to misjudge him. Natural as Raffarin may seem, there's nothing accidental about anything he does, according to friends as well as rivals. When he worked in the private sector, his profession was marketing. Now, as a cunning and proven politician, he projects just the down-home image many French are looking for at this particular moment.

That's quite a trick, given the country's electoral ambivalence. Following the spring presidential elections, which were dominated by protest votes against the center in the first round and against the extremist right in the second, Raffarin was the only fresh face on the scene. His interim government, in power for only six weeks, managed to turn the legislative vote into a clear-cut victory for the center- right. Now comes the time to rule, and Raffarin is going to need all his marketing skills, wile and good will. The strikes and protests preceding last ...