Season of SHOCK.(Brief Article)

It's all but official. After a landslide presidential victory, Jacques Chirac and his conservatives can look forward to controlling the Senate and the National Assembly. The dead albatross of cohabitation will fall from his neck, and with it the paralysis that has hobbled French politics for the past five years.

Even the defeated Socialists have something to celebrate: the comeuppance of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who could have pushed the country to the reaches of xenophobia. He garnered 17 percent in the May presidential balloting, knocking out Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. Yet in the parliamentary elections he dwindled to an also-ran, likely to gain no more than a couple of legislative seats--if he's lucky. The French may be shocked by the World Cup. But the republic has been saved! Time to go on vacation.

That's the bright side. The darker side is that many French seem to think the republic is in lousy shape regardless of who's in power-- Chirac, the Socialists or Le Pen. Count the votes, and the winner is None of the Above. The single biggest voting bloc in France these days is nonvoters--more than 15 million people, or 36 percent of the electorate, the worst turnout since 1848. Among young people 18 to 35, the figure was a staggering 56 percent. "Vote," pleaded former Socialist Finance minister Laurent Fabius last week after the results of the first round came in. "It takes five minutes, and it will determine the next five years of your lives."

The pitiful showing speaks volumes about the delicate position Chirac is in. The swell of abstentions represents a clear protest--both against him and, more profoundly, the system. The French may be relieved at their deliverance from Le Penisme, but there's no mistaking the deep sense of disaffection. And it's hard to know what to do about it. What do the French want, or not want? Does Chirac even know, and could he do anything about it if he did, given his curiously weak mandate? In this awkward and potentially volatile situation, the president can be likened to a tightrope walker. A misstep could paralyze his government.

Consider the challenges. In the next six months alone, Chirac will have to signal his intentions on controversial issues from pension and labor reform to an overhaul of the tax code and a slumping economy--all as the autumn strike season comes up. And while doing that, he must also act decisively on the big decision facing Europe: whether, and how, to enlarge.

Begin with the home front. As for Bill Clinton in 1992, so for Jacques Chirac now: the important thing is the economy, and he'd be stupid to forget it. Growth is at a sluggish 1.9 percent--not as bad as in Germany, but a source of growing social unease. Unemployment stands at 9 percent and looks likely to grow. Major layoffs at state industries were postponed for the elections; now they'll happen. Meanwhile, public spending has gotten out of hand. Government coffers that fund the social guarantees the French have grown accustomed to are near empty.

Chirac spent much of his previous five years as president criticizing Jospin for not dealing with these problems by curbing federal spending and enacting needed reforms. Now he will have to do it--fully conscious of the dangers. After winning the presidency in 1995, Chirac tapped Alain Juppe as prime minister. But when Juppe tried to rein in spending and cut bloated social programs, he was thrown out. Two months of massive, sometimes violent protests shut down the country and prompted Chirac to call new elections, which he lost. Unions are gearing up for new negotiations, setting the stage for a similar standoff. Chirac is on record favoring tax cuts and ...