The 'Successors' Dilemma'.(Hu Jintao in Washington D.C.)(Brief Article)

This week Washington staged something like a "precoronation party" for China's vice president, Hu Jintao, the unofficially annointed heir to Chinese Communist Party chief Jiang Zemin. Accepting wise advice, President Bush invited this young leader to the White House. Despite the many conflicts between the two nations, the United States must build effective working relations with Hu. The president's aides doubtless strained to gauge the views of "the real Hu"--a man who, even by Beijing's secretive standards, plays his cards extraordinarily close to his chest. Is he really--as his advisers keep intimating to Western journalists--a serious reformer waiting to emerge from the closet? If so, what are his views on accelerating political reform, for example, or on U.S.-Taiwan ties?

Amid the fanfare and probing questions, U.S. officials must remember that Hu still has far to go to consolidate his position. At best, the uncertainties of leadership politics will make Hu a somewhat uncertain negotiating partner for some time to come. At worst, he may find himself nominally in charge of a leadership paralyzed by mounting crises--rising unemployment, for one--and a vague power structure.

Hu's short-term politics will be defined not so much by his own hidden policy views as by his need to survive politically--"the successors' dilemma." While Jiang Zemin retains his political power, Hu must struggle to keep Jiang's trust and support. But to secure his status after Jiang is gone, Hu must simultaneously promote his own supporters within the party and the Army. It's a high-wire act: If Hu builds his own power base too aggressively, he risks alienating Jiang. If he is too passive, then he could have few allies when tough policy decisions arise in the future. Thus far, Hu's efforts to forge an independent base can only be rated a moderate success. Hu has scoured the countryside seeking promising young officials to promote, and older officials with long career ties to Hu have sprung up in significant posts. Many more will likely emerge at this fall's party congress. Still, their numbers are hardly overwhelming, and it may be some months or years before Hu is secure enough to press for major policy changes.

In the cloaked world of Chinese politics, it is not entirely clear yet how Jiang feels about Hu. On the positive side, Jiang has entrusted Hu with increasingly sensitive, high-profile tasks--investigating corruption by high-level officials (some with ties to Jiang), and reigning in Army and ...