Are Teflon Tony's Days Numbered?(Tony Blair)(Brief Article)

At 10 Downing Street, one of Tony Blair's closest aides, Alastair Campbell, keeps a file of newspaper clippings headlined Blair's worst week. It's grown to quite a collection since 1997, when the prime minister came into office on the strength of his Labour Party's greatest electoral triumph in a century. By Campbell's reckoning, those "worst weeks" come roughly every 4.5 weeks. That's a lot for a politician who's been the most consistently popular British leader since World War II, and who won last year's general election by a landslide. Depending on his mood, Campbell alternately chuckles or fumes at the press for its perversity in chronicling Blair's vertiginous (real or perceived) ups and downs.

Lo and behold, last week brought another round of dismal tidings, these even worse than usual. A few were hardy perennials, like widespread dissatisfaction with Britain's public services. Others came along more recently, including the widening post-September 11 rift between the United States and Europe that Blair has worked hard to bridge. And some were brand-new, among them the pesky question of an alleged political payoff. When Blair lent a helping hand to an Indian steel magnate seeking to buy a Romanian plant, was he rewarding the businessman for a [pound]125,000 contribution to the Labour Party a few weeks earlier? For all the controversy, Blair's poll ratings actually ticked upward. much to Campbell's satisfaction.

The jousting between Downing Street Pollyannas and Fleet Street Cassandras revolves on a single question: are Tony's Teflon days numbered, and if so, what's the so-called tipping point, where he goes from up to down with voters? One scenario, suggesting Blair is headed for a fall, goes like this: Blair may seem invulnerable to the political bad news that periodically envelops him. But at some point, the public will tire of Blair's unfulfilled promises to improve Britain's railways, hospitals, schools and the like. Pledges will begin to look like lies; Blair will begin to look like he's out of touch and doesn't care. His very insouciance will sign his political death warrant. Once the fond hope of Blair's opponents, this calculation has begun to be picked up in recent weeks even by supporters and partisan journalists.

Another scenario comes from within Blair's own ranks. In this version, the prime minister has plenty of time to set things right. By big margins, voters still blame the Conservative Party for virtually all of Britain's ills. Those same voters remain grateful to Blair and the Labour Party for having ended 18 years of Tory rule. The strength of the British economy, the healthiest of the world's largest economies, has purchased the patience of the British people. Unperturbed by real political opposition--the defeated Conservatives ...