Africa's Greatest Hope--And Danger.(Lagos, Nigeria)(Brief Article)

It did not require the ignition of a weapons depot packed with cluster bombs and tank shells to cement the reputation of Lagos, the commercial capital of Nigeria, as a less-than- desirable address. Other West Africans dread its name. They try to avoid visiting. But like the American and European oilmen drawn to Nigeria's natural wealth, they find it hard to ignore. Lagos alone has three times the population of some neighboring countries. Nigerians feel they count more, too. Despite the country's failures, epitomized by the squalor that sits beside towering skyscrapers in Lagos Nigeria produces powerful, vibrant personalities. Its imperious elite still feels destined to lead not only the continent but also the black race. When war breaks out in Africa, it is Nigerian soldiers who are sent to make peace. When it's time to party, there are no half measures. The biggest fortunes are to be had in Lagos.

Yet nobody who has lived in Lagos for long can feel astonished at last week's tragedy, which may have killed 1,000 people. As I end my three- year tour of duty, I can remember what stirred in my gut on that first trip through the grinding traffic, past giddying crowds and the menace of beggars brandishing wounded body parts like weapons: the feeling that in Lagos you lose all control of your destiny. As molten metal rained down from the blast, several fears raced through Lagosians' minds. Was it a military coup, to end the country's latest experiment with civilian rule? Had America mistakenly picked the city as the next target in its war on terror? Or was it a natural disaster like the volcano in Goma, Congo? The earth was opening to swallow the city.

Relief that it was none of the above has given way to even greater cynicism over the caliber of Nigeria's leaders. Business, industry and tin-roof slums have crowded in on the Army's main arsenal, at the Ikeja barracks. The commanders could have prevented catastrophe simply by storing their weapons well away from such a mass of humanity. The response also was revelatory. Amid bloody confusion, the government could offer little help.

September 11 may have given George W. Bush a chance to show his mettle. Jan. 27 will remind Nigerians of how callous and careless their leaders can be. They ask themselves if the leaders, too, have lost the ability to shape the nation.

When I arrived in Nigeria, hope was surging. Gen. Sani Abacha, the most brutal and avaricious of the country's military rulers, had just died suddenly of a heart attack. Nigerians called it God's work--a coup from heaven. Gen. Olusegun ...