Labels pin hopes on diverse list of signings: record labels are struggling to achieve chart breakthroughs with developing acts. Time to take a reality check. (A & R Analysis).

Looking back at the emerging trends of the last 12 months, 2001 could easily be considered a vintage year for emerging genres of music. UK garage, nu-metal and "chill-out" all fought their way into the consciousness of the music-consuming public and all helped to put UK music firmly back in the spotlight.

These successes do, however, mask a worrying trend: that 2001 was disastrous for new UK acts breaking through into the albums market. It was so bad that, as MW research reveals, the ability of UK record companies to break acts into the market has halved in just five years. In 1995, UK labels boasted a strike rate of 16%, based on new acts listed in our annual signings round-up scoring a top 40 album in a period up to 24 months after they are signed. By the end of 2001, however, just 8% of acts signed in the period back to January 2000 had scored such success. Of the new talent that did not struggle, Starsailor, So Solid Crew, Sophie Ellis-Bextor, Hear'Say, Blue and Mis-Teeq are a few of the handful of successful top 40 album acts that make up the figure for the latest period.

Meanwhile equally spectacular is the dip in strike rate in the singles market, which falls from 33% to 15% over the same five-year period (see table, left).

Each year's rosterwatch signings listings can not correspond exactly -- some of the labels that appeared in last year's listings have been replaced by more prolific companies or those that are more active in the current market while others simply no longer exist and some refused to provide any details -- the strike rate remains a relevant measure of success and, increasingly, failure.

The key successes hidden in the data are those acts that score hits as the result of very long development deals, although a look back over previous rosterwatch listings shows that if an act has not achieved a top 40 album within 24 months of being signed, it is unlikely it will ever do so. In fact S2's Toploader remain one of the very few examples in recent times of a signing going on to break the post-24 month rule.

Unsurprisingly given concerns raised increasingly vocally in recent years, all these factors point to the increasing short-termism of the record company A&R process. It therefore comes as little surprise to see that the artist development role is increasingly left to publishers, managers and the small independents to fulfil. White Stripes, Kosheen and Allstars are just three examples of acts in this year's listings that were developed independently (the first through their own US imprint, the second through indie label Moksha and the last through management company Byrne Blood) before signing with bigger companies with finished product ready to release. This trend is likely to continue further in 2002, as majors look increasingly to sign projects that have already proven their worth to some extent.

Despite the less than encouraging strike rate statistics, 2001 has emerged as a bumper year for new signings, with more than 127 new, and occasionally not so new, names added to the biggest labels' rosters on albums deals. Among 2001's most interesting signings are Miss Dynamite (Polydor), Boniface (Columbia), Stanton Warriors (679 Recordings/WEA London) and Gotan Project (XL Recordings) (see breakouts). These are not necessarily those acts that we expect to be among the best-sellers of this year, since some may take longer to reach their true potential (two of last year's tips have yet to release their debut material, which is now keenly awaited in 2002).