The Escape Route.(eliminating world poverty)(Brief Article)(Statistical Data Included)

Goldin is director of development policy at the World Bank. He writes in his personal capacity. Amy Heyman assisted in drafting this piece, which draws on the World Bank report "Globalization, Growth, and Poverty: Building an Inclusive World Economy."

The number of people living in extreme poverty has declined by 200 million since 1980. This unprecedented reduction in poverty was in no small part due to accelerating global economic integration. Yet more than 1.1 billion people still live on less than $1 a day. Continued globalization offers most of them the chance to escape from poverty, but it is not a panacea. The best hope for the poor lies in economic reform and increased trade. Yet even the best national and international policies may not be enough for millions living in regions with chronically weak resources or adverse geography. For this significant minority, there may be only one option to living on aid or remittances: migration.

History shows that waves of economic globalization are not always accompanied by increased migration. The first of three waves of global economic integration, from 1870 to 1914, saw a massive surge in migration. Exports as a share of world income doubled to about 8 percent, due largely to improvements in transportation and falling tariffs. Global per capita income rose, but not fast enough to prevent a rise in the number of poor people. In the absence of significant border controls, roughly 10 percent of the world's population migrated, with 60 million people moving from Europe alone, primarily to the New World.

The most recent wave of globalization started in earnest around 1980, accelerated by technological advances and improving economic policies in many developing countries. This phase has seen poor nations grow faster than the rich, reducing the number of poor people by around 10 million per year. Twenty-four countries, with a population of 3 billion, have doubled their ratio of trade to income in the last 20 years, with manufactured exports accounting for most of this growth.

Yet many remain left out. Some 2 billion people, including many in Africa and parts of the former Soviet Union, have not yet been integrated into the global economy. In these regions, factors that governments can influence, including weak economic policies, ineffective institutions and poor infrastructure, account for much of the failure. The fact that ...