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The statistics are familiar: Nearly one million U.S. teenagers become pregnant each year and about 500,000 give birth. For more than two decades, these figures have helped to define one of the country's major social problems. But now, after years of steady increases, teenage birthrates are down and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years; teenage sexual activity is also declining. These trends raise two important questions: Why have the rates gone down, and how can these trends be sustained?
The news in recent months has indeed been encouraging. Between 1991 and 1996, the teenage birthrate in the United States declined from a 20-year high of ...