Worst-Case Scenarios.(possible Middle East conflicts)(Brief Article)

The United States vows to fight through Ramadan. It promises to fight through winter--and beyond. Yet even in the early days of the bombing campaign in Afghanistan, there was rioting in the streets of Muslim capitals. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf pleaded for the earliest possible end to the air war. Egypt's Hosni Mubarak peppered Western governments with cables warning of revolts across the Islamic world. What might happen if the war indeed drags out--or worse, goes bad?

ISRAEL

It's crunch time for both sides. Yasir Arafat's militants, emboldened by the popular success of their freelance suicide raids and outraged by his support for America, could soon turn on him--especially as he tries to rein in their violence. For Israel the wild card is Washington. Officially its friendship remains resolute. But privately, relations are fraying after September 11. The United States will push hard for a peace deal--and a bona fide Palestinian state--not necessarily on favorable terms for the Israelis. The longer the Afghan war drags out, the tougher those pressures from Washington will be.

EGYPT

So far, Hosni Mubarak has been able to manage anti-American passions by doing as little as possible militarily. (Even as he passes along intelligence.) But his most dangerous enemy remains Osama bin Laden, whose top deputies are Egyptian and once sought Mubarak's overthrow. If they have sleeper cells in Egypt, it wouldn't be hard to sow instability. A sunken ship in the Suez Canal, Egypt's economic lifeline, could do it. So would a blow to tourism, one of Egypt's top money earners.

JORDAN

King Abdullah has refined his grip-and-grin at photo ops with U.S. officials. But his grip at home is no smiling matter. He has publicly shown him-self as a firm friend of the West--unlike his father during the gulf war. But the question is, how long he can keep it up? Passions among the majority Palestinian population are already inflamed by events in Israel. If the situation deteriorates, he could face trouble.