Cities in an Age of Terror.(Brief Article)(Interview)

Joel Kotkin is one of the world's leading forecasters of global social and economic trends. In his latest book, "The New Geography," Kotkin argues that the digital revolution is driving professionals from America's "first tier" cities to "Nerdistans," self-contained suburbs with office parks. Now, he says, the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington threaten to accelerate the exodus. A senior fellow at the Davenport Institute for Public Policy at Pepperdine University, Kotkin recently discussed the new challenges facing the world's cities with NEWSWEEK's Marcus Mabry. Excerpts:

MABRY: You've argued that the digital revolution threatens the pre- eminence of our greatest cities. How has Sept. 11 affected your views?

KOTKIN: I think Sept. 11 will drive the processes more quickly. In the aftermath of the World Trade Center attack, there was a visceral drive for people and businesses to migrate to places where they feel safer. Cities, which have enjoyed a tremendous renaissance in the U.S., in particular--but in some places in Europe as well, like London--will suffer from fears of insecurity. In places like Rotterdam and Hamburg, with large Muslim populations, people will feel less comfortable.

But in this new world order, dominated by old animosities, do you still place the same importance on "Nerdistans" and techies? Doesn't that world seem suddenly overshadowed?

The new defense economy will be completely suburban. It was the Nerdistans, the suburbs, that were the home of technologies [like cruise missiles and weapons systems]. The money in the commercial sector will start flowing to defense, just as it flowed from defense to the commercial sector [after the cold war]. And technology is the only answer the West has to this threat: more surveillance technology, more high-tech components.

What effect will Sept. 11 have on European and Asian cities?

Europe has a particular dilemma in that its largest immigrant groups tend to be Muslim. European cities, particularly British cities, have to be on the alert. I would also be very concerned in Germany that the large communities of Muslims and Germany's cooperation with the U.S. would make them a target. Ultimately, this is not just a war on the United States. It will be a war on Europe. If Japan takes a role in helping the U.S., its cities could be targeted as well.