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At War II - What to Expect.(Brief Article)

National Review

| October 15, 2001 | COPYRIGHT 2001 National Review, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

What can we say about the arc of the war we have entered? President Bush has prudently withheld many strategic details. (During the Gulf War, a "reporter" in a Saturday Night Live sketch asked "General Schwarzkopf" at a briefing: "If there is one thing you don't want Saddam Hussein to know, what would that be?") But what general traits can we foresee?

The enemy will try to strike again, and he won't try hijacking. Copycats may attempt to turn airplanes into bombs, and they will fail, since the learning curve of Americans was quite steep: The fourth plane crashed in Pennsylvania because heroic passengers, already knowing the fate of the other three, fought the enemy. The terrorists' next attempted weapons will probably be germs or nuclear bombs, either smuggled out of the former Soviet Union or slipped to them by Pakistani soulmates. The effects could be grave, although the deaths we have already suffered are comparable to the likely casualties of a crude nuclear weapon.

Most of our allies will disappoint us in every conceivable way, from minor annoyance to spectacular betrayal. The great power on the sidelines, China, will fish in troubled waters. This is the history of coalition warfare. World War II, so black and white in our memory, saw two major players, the Soviet Union and France, switch sides, while lesser European nations, such as Spain, blew with the prevailing winds. Queen Elizabeth II sang "The Star-Spangled Banner," and Israel declared a day of mourning: That about exhausts the short list of dependables. So the burden will be on us-nothing new there.

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