A Survivor Abandons Ship.(Kim Jong Pil)(Brief Article)

Playing king is not so easy in South Korea. Of the country's last six presidents, one was assassinated, one was exiled, two were sent to jail and one disgraced. But playing a kingmaker is a different story.

No one understands that better than Kim Jong Pil. Known as JP locally, the 75- year-old politician and former spy chief has survived at the center of South Korean politics for 40 years by acting as the quintessential No. 2 man. Last week he abandoned his latest patron, South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, by siding with the opposition in a no-confidence vote on the administration's point man in negotiations with North Korea. The move not only ended a four-year alliance, but forced the entire South Korean cabinet to resign and cast a cloud over Kim's "Sunshine Policy" of engagement with Pyongyang. In effect, with more than a year left until presidential elections in December 2002, South Korea's kingmaker is signaling that Kim's days on the throne are numbered.

JP has yet to announce his next move, but most political observers expect him to align his United Liberal Democrats, which hold 16 seats in the 270-member Legislature, with the conservative Grand National Party (GNP). The move makes sense ideologically--both parties support more-cautious reconciliation with North Korea and slower economic reforms. Just as important, polls show that opposition chief Lee Hoi Chang, defeated narrowly in the 1997 presidential election, is by far the leading candidate to replace Kim. "JP broke up with President Kim because he didn't see much hope there," said Kim Young Rae, a politics professor at Ajou University. "JP's political life would be extended if he joins hands with Lee."

Such a move would also hobble President Kim for the remainder of his term. The GNP already holds the greatest number of seats in Parliament; with the added support, the opposition coalition would be able to block most of the administration's policies. Any government measures to accelerate corporate restructuring and other economic reforms will face tougher resistance, while JP is likely to lead the growing chorus of complaints about the Sunshine Policy. Last week's announcement that Seoul would resume cabinet-level negotiations with Pyongyang may prove too little, too late. Kim has already angered influential voices in the media with a tax probe that has led to the arrest of several newspaper owners. And analysts warn that the ailing South Korean economy, battered by the tech slowdown in the United States, is not likely to pick up until ...