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Lower Incidence Threshold Can Detect Outbreak Early Enough To Start Vaccine Programs.(Brief Article)
2001 AUG 22 - (NewsRx.com & NewsRx.net) --
A meningitis incidence threshold of 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in just one week - lower than previously recommended by the World Health Organization - can be used reliably to confirm an epidemic in time to implement vaccination programs, conclude authors of a study in the July 28, 2001, issue of the Lancet.
Epidemics of meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa cause serious illness in tens of thousands of people, and thousands of deaths during epidemic years. The disease is often detected too late for the implementation of successful vaccination programs. Rosamund Lewis and colleagues from Epicentre, Paris, France, assessed weekly meningitis incidence as a tool to detect epidemics in time to implement mass vaccination.
The incidence of meningitis for 41 subdistricts in Mali, west Africa, was determined from cases recorded in health centers between 1989 and 1998, and from surveillance data between 1996 and 1998. For incidence thresholds of five to 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week, the investigators calculated sensitivity and specificity for detecting epidemics, and determined the time lapse between threshold and epidemic peak.
A total of 9084 meningitis cases were recorded. Clinic-based weekly incidence of five and 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants detected all meningitis epidemics (sensitivity 100%) with an average threshold-to-peak time of five and three weeks, respectively. Under-reporting reduced sensitivity: only surveillance thresholds of five or seven cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week detected all epidemics, Lewis et al. reported.
At 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week, false alarms occurred on fewer than 2% of occasions ...
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Source: HighBeam Research, Lower Incidence Threshold Can Detect Outbreak Early Enough To Start...