The Golden Handcuffs.(human rights in China)(Brief Article)

The argument is constantly made that Beijing should not be awarded the 2008 Olympics because the Chinese regime suppresses its own people, is stirring up unhealthy and belligerent nationalist fervor and is seeking to become a monster power that will devour its neighbors. The specter of Hitler in Berlin in 1936 is raised, as if his aggression could be repeated by the People's Republic seven decades later.

Beijing, in fact, is probably more like Seoul in 1988 than Berlin in 1936. There is no question that the current Chinese leadership will get a boost from a successful Olympic bid. But I think, just like South Korea's generals in the late 1980s, unable or unwilling to suppress a flowering democracy movement, even they do not realize how constrained they will be by such a victory.

As is often noted, China is entering a period of dramatically intensified stresses. The regime faces an almost complete turnover of its top leadership early next year. Job losses in money-losing state enterprises are fueling urban discontent; arbitrary fees and rampant corruption are enraging farmers. The Internet and increased economic interdependency are connecting Chinese to the wider world and expanding their expectations, even as old problems like separatist sentiment in Xinjiang and Tibet persist. And amid all this potential chaos, a regime accustomed to the arbitrary and unchallenged exercise of power will have less flexibility to act than ever.

If Beijing is awarded the Games, we can reasonably expect that the chance of war across the Taiwan Strait will diminish. Taiwan supports Beijing's Olympic bid, and commercial relations between China and Taiwan are booming. Both sides know war is bad for business. Just as Chinese membership in the WTO, which now looks likely by late 2001 or early 2002, will oblige ...