Nepal's Maoist Threat.

The CIA did it, with help from Indian spies and other outsiders. That was the message spread last week by Nepal's Maoist insurgents to explain the massacre of the country's royal family on June 1. Eyewitnesses told a different story: that the king, queen and other royals had been slaughtered in a drunken rage by the crown prince, who then shot himself in the head, sank into a coma, was proclaimed king and finally died. That version of events was so bizarre that many Nepalese were inclined to believe conspiracy theories. And that was a stroke of luck for the Maoist rebels eager to take advantage of a weakened monarchy.

With the country slipping toward chaos, Maoist leaders met secretly in Katmandu to plan their strategy. "They are gathering in the capital," reported a local businessman, one of many paying protection money to the insurgents. "They believe they could have a chance to take the country if they play their cards right." In fact, an immediate Maoist takeover of the world's only Hindu nation seemed to be a very long shot. Only about one-third of the country, mostly rural, is controlled by guerrilla sympathizers, who want a one-party communist state opposed to "imperialism, feudalism and bureaucratic capitalism." The U.S. Embassy's security office says Katmandu and other prime attractions for Western tourists are relatively unaffected.

Still, the bloodbath at the palace was a boon to the Maoists and a severe threat to Nepal's fledgling democracy. Most Nepalese didn't believe the survivors' explanation of the tragedy, especially because, at first, the killing of nine people was officially described as an "accident." When demonstrators took to the streets demanding the truth, four of them died in clashes with police. "The truth doesn't count now," said a friend of one of the slain princesses. "It's what the public would like to believe."

The shooting brought an unpopular new king to the throne and may put in line behind him an even more unpopular heir apparent. King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah, 53, younger brother of the murdered King Birendra, is a hard-line nationalist who apparently hopes to roll back some of the democratic reforms that have made Nepal a constitutional monarchy. His son, Prince Paras Shah, 27, is known as a party animal who was involved in at least one fatal hit-and-run accident. In a letter faxed to Nepalese news media last week, one of the Maoist leaders, a shadowy figure known as "Comrade Prachanda," said the killings were not just a family feud. He charged that Prime Minister Girija Koirala and other power brokers could not tolerate the "late King Birendra's liberal thoughts." Prachanda added: "This pre-planned massacre will have long- term effects on the future of Nepal."

As described last week by eyewitnesses, the shooting spree at the palace showed few signs of planning. When Crown Prince Dipendra, Birendra's heir, arrived for the family dinner, he was already drunk-- and furious with his parents. They had denied him permission to marry his half-Indian sweetheart, Deviyani Rana. Sources linked to the palace said he and Deviyani had already been united in a Hindu marriage ceremony called a tikka, which is not legally recognized in Nepal. During the day on June 1, Dipendra was "told by his father that if he married Deviyani, the throne would have to go to his brother [Prince Nirajan]," said a diplomat in Katmandu who has high-level contacts. Dipendra was popular with the public, but in the palace he was known for a nasty temper that got worse when he drank. He was fascinated by weapons and became an expert shot during his military training.

Dipendra was glum when he arrived at the dinner and confessed to an inlaw, a military doctor named Rajiv Shahi, that he was "very, very intoxicated," ...