Local economy still thriving despite slowdown.

Byline: JONATHAN MAZE Of The Post And Courier Staff

Steve Peper pays little attention to numbers like the Consumer Confidence Index or orders for durable goods. Still, he was able to predict an economic slowdown back in September. Peper is the owner of Gray Line Water Tours and Olde Towne Carriage Co., and his is the most basic of economic indicators: If his boats or carriages are full, the economy is doing well. If not, it often means the opposite, even if hotels and restaurants are full, and for the last three months of 2000 his boats and carriages were emptier than normal. "We're further down the food chain," Peper said. "People have to stay someplace. They have to eat somewhere. Mine is a truly discretionary purchase. We haven't seen a slowdown as bad as others, but our numbers last quarter were definitely down." For the last few weeks, it's been nearly impossible to read the newspaper, pick up a magazine or turn on the television without hearing something about the downward direction of the economy. SUDDEN DOWNTURN The big question is whether that direction leads to a recession. While there have been signs of a slowdown here with some recent plant closings and layoffs, local economists believe the Charleston area's diverse economy will shield it from any dramatic downturn. It's also important, they say, to remember where the economy …