Mega's Moment.(Megawati Sukarnoputri)

It's easy to underestimate Megawati Sukarnoputri. Don't. Her lifelong family friend Abdurrahman Wahid has repeatedly fallen into that trap during his 18 months as Indonesia's president. He and his advisers misinterpreted the vice president's tactful silences as a sign of her unquestioning support. Wahid would brag about her blind loyalty, adding that she wasn't smart enough to take his place. He publicly called her "stupid" at least once. And of all the president's many errors, his persistent misjudgment of Megawati is the one that will likely cost him his job--or at least most of his powers. Close friends say she is tired of the snide remarks and rude treatment. More than that, though, she is convinced that the man she has always addressed as "brother" can no longer be trusted to run the country.

That may be all it takes. The politics in Indonesia is very personal, and it seems increasingly likely that Wahid will be toppled not by a wave of popular discontent, but by a single, desperately shy, middle- aged housewife. The president is almost totally blind, and his once sharp intellect seems increasingly unfocused, possibly as a result of two strokes he suffered before taking office. He has been implicated in two financial scandals, although he vehemently denies any wrongdoing. His erratic behavior, his contradictory statements and his incompetence as an administrator have undermined his credibility as a leader. Yet his foes would have little chance of ousting him if they did not have the backing of Megawati, who controls the largest group of seats in Parliament--and more important, the hearts and minds of ordinary Indonesians.

The fact that she has sided with the anti-Wahid partisans has set up the country for a showdown. On April 30, Parliament censured the president for a second time for incompetence and violating the Constitution; Wahid has appointed a high-ranking team of cabinet members--dubbed the Magnificent Seven--to hammer out a deal with Megawati and thereby undercut the momentum to impeach him. Yet Wahid also says he refuses to relinquish any more power to his vice president, particularly the power to hire and fire ministers.

The drama has thus effectively narrowed to the mano a mano between these two--the father figure and the matron, the spiritual leader and the daughter of the country's first president, Sukarno. Those who know Wahid say he will not budge further: "He would prefer to be kicked out of office than to surrender his presidential power," says Juwono Sudarsono, Wahid's former Defense minister. The outcome now depends on the character of the enigmatic Megawati.

The vice president knows she could topple Wahid any time she chooses, simply by quitting her post to lead the opposition. But any such sudden moves would risk a massive outbreak of street violence between her supporters and those loyal to Wahid. Close associates of Megawati say she remains haunted by the rivers of blood that were spilled in 1965, after her father was overthrown in a military coup led by Suharto, the Army general who would dominate the country for the next three decades. "It was a very tragic, traumatic time for her," says Noviantika Nasution, a good friend and top official of her Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (PDI-P). "She still has nightmares about it."

It's less obvious what her dreams are. She has refrained from calling publicly for Wahid to step down. But, says Arifin Panigoro, the PDI-P's leader in Parliament, "it's clear that [Megawati] wants the president removed. She says, 'If [Wahid] resigns, I would thank him, but if not we can go to the special session'." (If necessary, lawmakers can vote to call an emergency session of the 700-member People's Consultative Assembly as early as July to begin impeachment proceedings and remove the president from office.) Megawati may well have lost the presidency after the November 1999 elections--even though her party won the most votes--because she assumed the post would be granted to her as much by birthright as by ballot. This time she has lowered herself a bit further into the fray, authorizing her party leaders to support the censure motions and making clear through aides that she, too, has lost faith in the president.

The strategy is classically Javanese--and reflects not caution but the depth of Megawati's conviction that she is born to rule. Above all she does not want to be seen as grasping for power, both because she believes fiercely in adhering to constitutional procedures and because that would in fact reflect weakness. Instead she is quietly adopting an aura of leadership, extending what authority she has been given and waiting for more to flow to her. "She is more self-assured and self- confident, mentally and emotionally ready to take over," says Attorney General Marzuki Darusman, who has watched her abilities develop as she has run the weekly meetings of the cabinet and the economic advisory council. "She is clearly aware of the strong possibility that she soon could be thrust into the presidency."